With just five weeks left in the 2025 NFL season, the Denver Broncos are playing like a team destined for home-field advantage — while the Kansas City Chiefs are fighting just to stay alive. After a stunning 31-28 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12, the Chiefs dropped to 6-6, sliding out of the playoff picture and into a brutal tiebreaker battle with three teams that’ve already beaten them this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos, sitting at 9-2, are now the clear darlings of the AFC — not just because of their record, but because of timing, schedule, and a little bit of luck.
The Broncos’ Perfect Storm
It’s not just that the Broncos are winning. It’s how they’re winning — and when. Their Week 12 bye wasn’t just a rest day; it was a strategic gift. While the rest of the AFC scrambled, the Broncos watched. And they saw everything break their way. The New England Patriots, their main rival for the top seed, lost ground in the standings without even playing. The Las Vegas Raiders, who stunned New England on opening weekend, are now 2-9 and reeling. And the Washington Commanders, 3-8 and desperate, are coming to Denver’s backyard next.
According to NFL.com’s postseason probabilities, a win over Washington and another against Las Vegas would put Denver at 11-2 — and even if the Patriots win out at 15-2, the Broncos would still claim the No. 1 seed. Why? Because of their record against common opponents. And that’s where the Raiders’ win in Foxborough becomes the invisible tiebreaker hanging over the entire AFC. If the Broncos win their next two, they don’t just lead the division — they own the conference’s most valuable asset: the first-round bye.
The Chiefs’ Collapse: Mahomes Under Pressure
It’s hard to overstate how quickly things unraveled for Kansas City. One week, they were considered Super Bowl favorites. The next, they’re on the outside looking in — and it’s not just because of the Cowboys loss. It’s the pattern. The Los Angeles Chargers beat them. The Jacksonville Jaguars beat them. The Buffalo Bills beat them. Three teams, three losses. All within the last five weeks. And now, as Bleacher Report noted, those wins are becoming the foundation of a playoff tiebreaker nightmare.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, still one of the league’s most electrifying players, is feeling the weight. His supporting cast has been inconsistent. The offensive line has struggled. And the defense — once a strength — has given up 27+ points in four of their last six games. The Chiefs aren’t just losing; they’re losing to teams they’re expected to dominate. And with the Baltimore Ravens (6-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) breathing down their necks, there’s no room for error. A loss in Week 14 against the Arizona Cardinals — a team with nothing to lose — could be the death knell.
The AFC Playoff Picture: A Three-Team Race
The AFC’s top three are now locked in a three-way tug-of-war:
- New England Patriots (10-2): Still the odds-on favorite, but their Week 14 bye gives Denver a golden window to leapfrog them.
- Denver Broncos (9-2): On a collision course with New England. Their schedule softens just enough to make a 15-2 finish plausible.
- Indianapolis Colts (8-3): Despite losing to Kansas City, they still lead the AFC South. But their path gets harder: road games against the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans loom.
Behind them, chaos reigns. The Baltimore Ravens (6-5) are clinging to the final playoff spot, but their tiebreaker over Pittsburgh is razor-thin. The Buffalo Bills (7-5) are in the mix, but their loss to Kansas City still haunts them. And the Los Angeles Chargers — despite being 6-5 — are stuck in purgatory. Their playoff probability hasn’t budged since their bye, even as teams ahead of them lost. That’s the cruel math of the NFL: winning isn’t enough if everyone else is winning too.
What’s Next? The Final Quarter Begins
The final quarter of the season — December 1 to December 5 — will decide everything. The Broncos face Washington and Las Vegas. The Patriots rest. The Chiefs host Arizona and then travel to Cincinnati. One slip-up could end Kansas City’s season. One win streak could vault Denver into the driver’s seat.
And don’t forget the human element. John Breech, CBS Sports analyst, confirmed on November 25 that the New York Giants were the first team officially eliminated — a sign that the playoff window is slamming shut for many. For Denver, it’s wide open. For Kansas City? It’s a matter of days.
Why This Matters
This isn’t just about seeding. It’s about legacy. A No. 1 seed means home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs — a massive edge in a league where cold weather and hostile crowds have sent more than one contender home early. For the Broncos, this could be their first top seed since 2015. For the Chiefs, it could be the end of a dynasty’s final run. Mahomes has won three Super Bowls. But this season? It’s not about rings anymore. It’s about survival.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Kansas City Chiefs still make the playoffs?
Yes — but barely. The Chiefs need to win at least four of their final five games and hope for multiple losses by the Chargers, Ravens, and Bills. Their head-to-head losses to those three teams make tiebreakers nearly impossible to overcome. Even a 9-8 record might not be enough if the Chargers finish 9-8 and hold the tiebreaker.
Why does the Broncos’ schedule matter so much?
Their next two opponents — Washington (3-8) and Las Vegas (2-9) — are among the league’s worst teams. Winning both would give Denver a 11-2 record before their toughest stretch. Even if New England wins out, Denver’s superior record against common opponents (including the Raiders’ win in Foxborough) gives them the edge for the top seed.
How does the Patriots’ bye affect the AFC race?
It’s a gift to Denver. With New England resting in Week 14, the Broncos can jump ahead in the standings with two wins. Even if both teams finish 15-2, Denver wins the tiebreaker based on common opponents — meaning the Patriots’ bye doesn’t help them catch up. It only helps Denver pull ahead.
Who are the biggest threats to the Broncos’ top seed?
Right now, it’s the Patriots — but only on paper. The real threat is the Broncos’ own schedule after Week 14: road games against the Los Angeles Chargers and San Francisco 49ers, plus a home game against the Buffalo Bills. Lose even one of those, and the top seed slips away.
What’s the significance of the Raiders’ win over the Patriots?
That Week 1 win is now the invisible key to the AFC’s top seed. If the Broncos and Patriots both finish 15-2, Denver’s head-to-head tiebreaker advantage comes from beating the Raiders — who beat New England. That single game, played in September, could decide which team gets the bye and home-field advantage through January.
Is Patrick Mahomes’ legacy at risk this season?
Not his legacy — but his postseason momentum. Mahomes has won three Super Bowls in six years. If the Chiefs miss the playoffs for the first time since 2020, it’ll raise questions about whether the window is closing. A 6-10 season would be a shock. But even a 9-8 finish with an early exit could make this feel like the end of an era — not because of talent, but because of timing and bad breaks.
